It鈥檚 the busy season for Josh Dyck Josh Dyck , director of the CPO Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell. An associate professor of Political Science political science , Dyck oversees the鈥, Q: Voting has always seemed like a Norman Rockwell moment, a sacred American duty. Has it now been weaponized by those who cast doubt on the voting process and on the legitimacy of the results?, , A:, There are three critical parts to having a functioning democracy. The first is that the choices have to be real. You can鈥檛 have a sham election where you coronate a dictator. The second is the鈥, Q: We hear a lot about mailed ballots being a potential problem. Is voting by mail any riskier than voting in person, in terms of ballot security? , A:, I鈥檓 going to give a two-part answer to this question. So, the first part of this answer is that there are many states in this country that run very successful all-mail elections and have for years,鈥, Q: Are you seeing any trends or marked differences from 2016 or 2018 in your pre-election polling?, , A:, You鈥檒l have to wait and see, but we will be very busy this October. One thing I can say is that I expect turnout to be very high. This is a very enthusiastic electorate. , Q: Do you think it will come down to one state deciding the election? If so, which state? , A:, No, I don鈥檛. I expect that we will know the final result before midnight on election night. If there is a single decisive state, it is likely to be Pennsylvania. , Q: Do you think the election may be decided by a demographic group?, , A:, Generally, I think too much attention if often paid to demographic changes from election to election or to pinning electoral fortunes to a single group. This is a retrospective election on Donald鈥, Q: Many states like Massachusetts have adopted expanded mail-in/absentee voting and early voting laws this year, in response to COVID-19. What do you expect the impact of those changes will have on鈥, , A:, This answer will likely surprise some people, but the research on early/absentee voting is that it largely conveniences people who would vote anyhow and doesn鈥檛 do much to increase turnout. In a鈥, Q: As we grow more and more technologically savvy, we鈥檙e taking longer to determine a winner for president. When do you think we will actually learn who wins the 2020 presidential race?, , A:, It鈥檚 taking longer because we are closely divided, and because we have worked to convenience voters at the expense of expediency. But I still think we鈥檙e going to know the winner on election night鈥, Q: What is your biggest nightmare scenario for Nov. 3?, , A:, That this election is not won decisively by the votes of the American public and that we end up within what legal scholar Rick Hasen has called 鈥渢he margin of litigation.鈥 The best outcome for our鈥, Q: What do you view as the most challenging aspect of polling this year?, , A:, The Center for Public Opinion has expanded its polling operation in 2020. In 2016, we were a regional pollster doing swing state polling in a single state. In 2020, we will be focusing on several鈥, Q: If the election were held today, who do you think would win the presidency?, , A:, If the election were held today, Biden would win. He鈥檚 in a better position today than (Hillary) Clinton was vis-脿-vis Trump in 2016. Of course, Clinton was a 3-to-1 favorite at this point in 2016.鈥
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